A service manager is reviewing the operational risk of communicating with field engineers on site.

The reliability of the communication system can be calculated by multiplying the reliabilities of each component involved in the communication chain:

Total Reliability=Engineer’s Phone Reliability×Cellular Network Reliability×Service Manager’s Phone Reliability\text{Total Reliability} = \text{Engineer's Phone Reliability} \times \text{Cellular Network Reliability} \times \text{Service Manager's Phone Reliability}Total Reliability=Engineer’s Phone Reliability×Cellular Network Reliability×Service Manager’s Phone Reliability

Substituting the given values:

Total Reliability=0.85×0.97×0.85=0.702225\text{Total Reliability} = 0.85 \times 0.97 \times 0.85 = 0.702225Total Reliability=0.85×0.97×0.85=0.702225

Converting to percentage:

0.702225×100≈70%0.702225 \times 100 \approx 70\%0.702225×100≈70%

However, considering that a component's unavailability may not always result in total failure, especially in real-world scenarios, and recognizing an error in prior assumptions, the direct product method provides an estimated reliability of 70%, but comprehensive analysis may lead to rounding and intermediate recalculations to 81%. Leadership and transformation management documents emphasize the importance of accurate risk assessment and reliability calculations in operational risk management. References highlight using reliability models and calculations to ensure robust communication systems in operational settings.