You are building a model to predict daily temperatures.

When building a model to predict daily temperatures, it is important to split the training and test data based on time rather than a random split. This is because temperature data is likely to have temporal dependencies and patterns, such as seasonality, trends, and cycles. If the data is split randomly, there is a risk of data leakage, which occurs when information from the future is used to train or validate the model. Data leakage can lead to overfitting and unrealistic performance estimates, as the model may learn from data that it should not have access to. By splitting the data based on time, such as using the most recent data as the test set and the older data as the training set, the model can be evaluated on how well it can forecast future temperatures based on past data, which is the realistic scenario in production. Therefore, splitting the data based on time rather than a random split is the best way to make the production model more accurate.