EAp1: Operational Carbon Projection and Decarbonization Plan requires a 25-year forecast.

The 25-year forecast is intended to show how the project’s operational carbon emissions may change over time as building energy use, equipment, fuels, refrigerants, and the electrical grid evolve. Grid electricity is expected to change in carbon intensity as renewable generation expands and fossil-fuel generation declines. A building’s projected emissions therefore cannot be evaluated accurately by applying only the current grid-emissions factor for its entire operating period. The forecast helps the project team identify future emissions, evaluate electrification and efficiency measures, plan equipment replacement, and establish a credible decarbonization pathway. It does not prove that the building will be net-zero energy, because energy balance and carbon emissions are different metrics. It is also not primarily a financial analysis for obtaining project financing. LEED v5 places operational decarbonization at the centre of project planning.

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