What is the main value of scenario analysis in risk identification?
A.
Predicting the most likely outcome
B.
Analyzing past scenarios to avoid repetition
C.
Exploring multiple realistic future scenarios and their possible impacts
D.
Ranking risks based solely on historical data
The Answer Is:
C
This question includes an explanation.
Explanation:
The correct answer isC. Exploring multiple realistic future scenarios and their possible impacts. Scenario analysis is a forward-looking technique that helps organizations identify risks by examiningdifferent plausible future conditionsand their potential effects on objectives.
ISO 31000 encourages organizations to consider uncertainty and change. Scenario analysis supports this by moving beyond single-outcome predictions and allowing organizations to explore how combinations of events may unfold. This enhances preparedness and resilience.
Option A is too narrow. Option B is backward-looking. Option D limits insight to past data.
From a PECB ISO 31000 Lead Risk Manager perspective, scenario analysis is valuable for identifying emerging and strategic risks. Therefore, the correct answer isexploring multiple realistic future scenarios.
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