Refer to the exhibit.

The show ata endpoint output lists the AP’s AP Tunnel Agent (ATA) state transitions with a given gateway.

Key state/result fields:

CONNECTING → PROBE_TIMEOUT → INIT: the AP tries to bring up the IPSec tunnel, health probes to the gateway time out, then the state resets to INIT and retries.

TUN_RECV_TIMEOUT: the AP stops receiving tunnel keepalives/packets from the gateway within the expected interval.

SURVIVING indicates the AP is maintaining service with an already-up tunnel while control connectivity is impaired; it is not the state shown at the end here.

In the log, AP-01 repeatedly cycles through CONNECTING → PROBE_TIMEOUT → INIT, with intermittent TUN_RECV_TIMEOUT. This pattern is the documented symptom of the gateway being unreachable or down (no response to probes/keepalives), rather than a Central/orchestrator outage or PMTU problem.

Therefore, the correct conclusion is that the gateway at 192.168.1.92 is offline or not reachable.

A is incorrect: the final/recurring state is not SURVIVING.

C is incorrect: a Central/orchestrator issue would show SURVIVING (existing tunnel continues) rather than repeated probe timeouts to the gateway.

D is incorrect: PMTU issues do not generate recurring PROBE_TIMEOUT/TUN_RECV_TIMEOUT cycles; they appear as ESP/IKE negotiation problems, not persistent probe loss.