When assessing the likelihood that a recently discovered software vulnerability will be exploited, the most important consideration is the skill level required of a threat actor. Here's an explanation:
Skill Level of Threat Actors:
The skill level required to exploit a vulnerability determines how accessible the exploit is to potential attackers.
If a vulnerability requires advanced technical skills to exploit, it is less likely to be targeted by less sophisticated attackers.
Conversely, if the exploit can be easily executed with minimal skills, it increases the likelihood of widespread exploitation.
Factors Influencing Likelihood of Exploitation:
Availability of Exploit Tools:If automated tools or scripts are available to exploit the vulnerability, even less skilled attackers can take advantage of it.
Publication of Exploit Details:If the vulnerability and its exploitation method are widely published, it becomes more accessible to a broader range of attackers.
Assessment of Likelihood:
Security teams assess the skill level required by analyzing whether the exploit is straightforward or complex.
They also consider the presence of exploit kits in the wild that could lower the barrier to entry for potential attackers.
Comparison with Other Factors:
Amount of PII Disclosed:While important, it relates more to the impact rather than the likelihood of exploitation.
Ability to Detect and Trace:This is crucial for response but does not directly influence the likelihood of exploitation.
Amount of Data Exposed:Similar to PII, this factor pertains to the impact rather than the likelihood of exploitation.
[References:, The CRISC Review Manual discusses the importance of understanding the threat landscape, including the skill level of potential attackers (CRISC Review Manual, Chapter 2: IT Risk Assessment, Section 2.2.1 Internal Threats)., , , , , , , , , ]
