What is the most accurate rough order of magnitude (ROM)?
A.
In the Initiation phase, the estimate is in the range of +/- 50%.
B.
In the Planning phase, the estimate is in the range of +/- 50%.
C.
In the Monitoring and Controlling phase, the estimate is in the range of +/- 15%.
D.
In the Closing phase, the estimate is in the range of +/- 15%.
The Answer Is:
A
This question includes an explanation.
Explanation:
According to the PMBOKĀ® Guide, specifically within the Estimate Costs process, the accuracy of a project estimate increases as the project progresses through its life cycle.
Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM): This type of estimate is typically provided during the Initiating phase of a project when very little detail is known.
The Range: A ROM estimate is historically defined with an accuracy range of -25% to +75%. However, in various versions of the PMI standards and exam contexts, a range of +/- 50% is frequently used to represent the high level of uncertainty during the earliest stages of the project.
Evolution of Estimates: As more information becomes available through the Planning phase, the estimate is refined into a Definitive Estimate, which typically has a much narrower range, such as -5% to +10%.
Analysis of Other Options:
B. In the Planning phase, the estimate is in the range of +/- 50%: Incorrect. By the planning phase, the team is working toward a " Budget Estimate " (-10% to +25%) or a " Definitive Estimate. "
C and D. Monitoring and Controlling / Closing: Estimates are updated during these phases, but the term ROM specifically refers to the " rough " figures used at the start of the project to determine feasibility, not the refined data used during execution or closing.
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