An adaptive team schedules 20 story points in the upcoming sprint.

In Agile and Scrum methodologies, specifically regarding Empirical Process Control, a team ' s historical performance is the most reliable predictor of future performance. This is primarily measured through Velocity.

Why Choice C is correct:

Velocity Comparison: The team ' s average velocity is 25 story points. They have only planned 20 story points for the upcoming sprint. Since 20 is significantly less than their historical average (80% of their typical capacity), the team is working with a " buffer. "

Confidence Levels: In Agile estimation, if a team takes on work that is well below their average velocity, the probability of completion is very high. Statistically, since they usually finish 25, the likelihood of finishing 20—barring a major impediment—is extremely high (near certain).

Capacity and Float: The mention of " one day of float " further supports a high completion rate, as it indicates the team has built-in time to handle unexpected issues or administrative tasks without impacting the delivery of the 20 points.

Analysis of other options:

A and B (25-75%): These ranges would be more applicable if the team had scheduled exactly 25 points (their average) or slightly more. When a team schedules at their exact average, the probability of finishing everything is typically closer to 50% (since an average implies they sometimes do more and sometimes do less).

D (0-25%): This would only be the case if the team scheduled significantly more than their average velocity (e.g., scheduling 40 points when they usually only finish 25).

Key Concept: The Project Management Institute (PMI) and the Agile Practice Guide emphasize that Velocity (Choice C) is a measure of a team’s capacity. By scheduling work below their demonstrated capacity, the team increases the " probability of success " and ensures a sustainable pace, which is one of the core principles of the Agile Manifesto. This approach reduces the risk of carrying over unfinished stories to the next sprint.