According to the PMBOK® Guide, Expected Monetary Value (EMV) Analysis is a statistical concept that calculates the average outcome when the future includes scenarios that may or may not happen (i.e., uncertainty). It is a tool and technique used within the Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis process.
The Calculation: EMV is calculated by multiplying the value of each possible outcome by its probability of occurrence and then adding the results together.
Opportunities vs. Threats: In EMV analysis, opportunities (positive risks) are expressed as positive values, while threats (negative risks) are expressed as negative values.
Decision Tree Analysis: EMV is most commonly used in conjunction with Decision Tree Analysis. By calculating the EMV for different paths in a decision tree, project managers can make informed choices about which path offers the best " average " outcome for the organization.
Neutrality: Because it represents an average, EMV assumes a risk-neutral position—it doesn ' t account for the organization ' s specific risk appetite (risk-averse or risk-seeking), but provides a purely mathematical baseline for comparison.
Analysis of Other Options:
A. Sensitivity analysis: This technique helps to determine which individual risks have the most potential impact on project outcomes. It typically uses a Tornado Diagram to visualize how the uncertainty of each element affects the objective being examined, but it does not calculate an " average outcome " of combined scenarios.
B. Three-point estimate: This is a technique used to improve the accuracy of cost or duration estimates by considering uncertainty and risk. It uses three values (Optimistic, Pessimistic, and Most Likely). While it handles uncertainty, it is used for estimating a single activity ' s duration or cost rather than calculating the monetary value of complex future scenarios.
C. Modeling and simulation: This usually refers to Monte Carlo Analysis, which uses a computer model to iterate the project many times using random values from probability distributions. While it provides a range of possible outcomes and a mean, EMV is the specific term used for the " average outcome " calculation of discrete scenarios (like those in a decision tree).
