The description provided in the question directly matches the concept of Critical Path Analysis (CPA) as used in threat intelligence analysis.
In CTIA, Critical Path Analysis is a structured analytical technique used to determine the logical sequence of adversarial actions or events that could lead to a specific outcome. It helps analysts create a timeline or chain of likely activities based on adversary behavior, available vulnerabilities, and possible targets.
This method involves constructing a logical flow of actions that an attacker might take — such as reconnaissance, exploitation, lateral movement, and data exfiltration — and identifying key points in that chain where defenders can detect or disrupt the attack.
Key Characteristics of Critical Path Analysis:
It helps identify cause-and-effect relationships between adversarial actions.
It is assumption-driven, based on observed patterns, indicators, and adversary intent.
It allows prediction of future attacker behavior by modeling their likely paths and objectives.
It supports prioritization of defensive measures at critical stages of an attack.
Why the Other Options Are Incorrect:
B. Linchpin analysis:Focuses on identifying the key individual, node, or factor that plays a pivotal role in an adversary’s operation. It is used for identifying the “weakest link” to disrupt the threat actor’s network, not for sequencing adversary actions.
C. Analogy analysis:Involves comparing current situations or attack patterns with previous known cases to infer potential behaviors or outcomes. It relies on historical similarities, not on logical event sequencing.
D. Opportunity analysis:Focuses on identifying areas where intelligence can create opportunities to mitigate or exploit a situation. It’s used for strategic planning, not constructing adversarial timelines.
Conclusion:
Sam used Critical Path Analysis to model the attacker’s likely actions and derive meaningful intelligence from large volumes of data.
Final Answer: A. Critical Path Analysis
Explanation Reference (Based on CTIA Study Concepts):
As per CTIA analysis techniques, Critical Path Analysis is used for building logical sequences of adversarial events to anticipate attacker behavior and improve prediction accuracy.
