When creating a model to estimate risk, it is important to recognize which one of...

Comprehensive and Detailed In-Depth Explanation:

Risk models (e.g., VaR, stress testing) rely on historical data to estimate potential future outcomes, but they cannot predict the future with certainty due to inherent uncertainties and changing conditions. Option C correctly states that such models "estimate possible future market behavior," acknowledging their probabilistic nature. Option A and B are incorrect—models don’t inherently assume better or worse markets; they extrapolate based on data. Option D is false—historical data-based models are not guaranteed to be accurate, as past patterns may not repeat. This aligns with Basel’s emphasis on model limitations and the need for stress testing to complement historical estimates.

Exact Extract from Official Source:

BCBS, "Basel III: A Global Regulatory Framework for More Resilient Banks and Banking Systems," December 2010, para. 718(xi): "Models relying on historical data provide estimates of possible future outcomes but do not predict future market behavior with certainty, necessitating the use of stress scenarios to capture tail risks."

GARP FRR Study Notes, Quantitative Analysis Section: "Risk models using historical data, such as VaR, offer probabilistic estimates of future market behavior, not definitive predictions, due to the limitations of assuming stationarity in financial markets."